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Oscar Nominees the most ethnically-diverse in Academy history
What the Oscar nominations REALLY Mean and who is likely to win

News Analysis by Alex Ben Block, Senior Columnist for Hollywood Today

HOLLYWOOD, CA (rushprnews) 01/24/2007- -- The big surprise in the Academy Awards race this year is not so much who was nominated - the vast majority of those selected were expected -- but rather the composition of the nominees.

In the high profile acting categories, the nominees represent the most ethnically diverse group in history, including the most African Americans ever to be nominated in a single year. The best actress favorites are all older women, though very rarely have older women won in the past. And there is more mixing of foreign and foreign language movies with mainstream English language movies than ever before.

After years in which the Oscars were a white only affair, African American actors have scored in recent years, including Halle Berry, Denzel Washington and Jamie Foxx. However, there have never been five nominated in one year in the major acting categories before (Will Smith, Forest Whitaker, Eddie Murphy, Jennifer Hudson and Djimon Hounsou).

Hispanics and even Asians were also well represented this year, Oscars most diverse ever. Making the announcement at the Academy early Tuesday, Salma Hayek cheered when her friend Penélope Cruz was nominated for "Volver." Mexican director Guillermo del Toro's "Pan's Labyrinth" had six nominations and Mexican director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu was tapped for a best-director nomination for the much celebrated "Babel," fresh from winning the best drama at the Golden Globes.

The nominations of Helen Mirren, Judi Dench and all time Oscar nominee leader Meryl Streep were widely expected but the fact remains no woman over age 35 has won in the category in nine years. The last mature recipient was Jessica Tandy for "Driving Miss Daisy" way back in 1990.

Another surprise was that "Dreamgirls" received the most nominations of any movie with eight but was slighted when it came to the Best Picture and Best Director categories. Three of "Dreamgirls" nominations came in one category - original song. Yet two "Dreamgirls" nominees, Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson, have to be considered odds-on favorites to take best supporting actor and actress respectively.

The Academy also mostly snubbed the most critically acclaimed movie of the year, "United 93," the first major film based on the 9/11 attack on America. It did earn nods for director Paul Greengrass and for editing.

Other films that did not do as well as anticipated include Emilio Estevez's "Bobby;" Mel Gibson's "Apocalypto" (nominated for make-up and in two sound categories); indie fav "Thank You For Not Smoking," which was shut out; doomsday drama "Children Of Men" (nominated for film editing, cinematography and adapted screenplay); and "Pan's Labyrinth," which was nominated for best foreign film, art direction, cinematography, score and original screenplay.

Most prognosticators predicted Leonardo DiCaprio would be nominated for "The Departed," but instead he got a best acting nod for "Blood Diamond," which also took a supporting nod for Djimon Hounsou. Even more surprising, Mark Walberg got a best supporting nomination for "The Departed," while fellow stars Jack Nicholson, Matt Damon (also ignored for "The Good Shepherd"), Alec Baldwin and Martin Sheen were all passed over.

The movie "Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan" didn't do as well as some anticipated. It earned a single nod, for adapted screenplay. Star Sacha Baron Cohen was left out of the list of top actors.

Some may blame the omission of "Borat" on the Academy's usual disregard for comedies, but this year a number of other comedies did score - in particular the indie darling "Little Miss Sunshine," which shined with nods for best picture, supporting actor (Alan Arkin, the oldest nominee) and actress (Abigail Breslin, at age 10 the youngest nominee this year, and fourth youngest in history) and original screenplay. Among the "Sunshine" players for whom Oscar did not shine at all were Greg Kinnear, Toni Collette and Steve Carell.

Playing the role of spoiler once again was Academy favorite Clint Eastwood, whose "Letters From Iwo Jima" earned a nomination for best picture, best director, sound and original screenplay. It was only two years ago that Eastwood was a surprise winner of the best picture and director for "Million Dollar Baby," which emerged as a late contender to beat favorite "The Aviator." Surprisingly Ken Wantanabe, the star of "Iwo Jima" was ignored by voters. Eastwood's World War II companion film, the English language "Flags of Our Fathers," was recognized only in two technical categories.

To no one's surprise, the biggest grossing movie of the year, "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," received only four nominations, all in the technical categories, including visual effects.

ANALYSIS OF KEY CATEGORIES:

BEST PICTURE - With "DreamGirls" omitted from the list, "The Departed" and "Babel" emerge as the favorites.
BEST ACTRESS - Never bet against 14 time nominee Meryl Streep on Oscar night, but Helen Mirren has to be considered an odds-on favorite for "The Queen," after winning every other award in sight. Significant omission include Annette Bening for "Running With Scissors," Maggie Gyllenhaal for "Sherrybaby," Naomi Watts for "The Painted Veil," Beyoncé Knowles for "DreamGirls" and Cate Blanchett for "The Good German," although she was nominated as supporting actress for "Notes On A Scandal."
BEST ACTOR - Forest Whitaker as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin in the little seen "The Last King of Scotland" has to be considered the strong favorite. Leonardo DiCaprio is a contender but the sentimental favorite may well be Peter O'Toole for "Venus." This is the eighth nomination for O'Toole and a loss would put inscribe him in the record books for losing the most times. Among those who were not nominated, besides Watanabe, Damon and Sasha Cohen, were Aaron Eckhart for "Thank You for Not Smoking" and Edward Norton for "The Painted Veil."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Jennifer Hudson has to be considered the favorite for "DreamGirls," but the Academy has a history of recognizing precocious youngsters, so Abigail Breslin in "Little Miss Sunshine" has to be seen as a contender. Omission include Emily blunt for "Prada," Catherine O'Hara for "For Your Consideration" and Toni Colette for "Sunshine."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Eddie Murphy, with is first Oscar nomination, becomes the immediate favorite. Alan Arkin is the sentimental favorite and Mark Wahlberg could be the darkhorse if "The Departed" makes a strong overall showing. Among the significant omissions, besides Nicholson, DiCaprio and Damon in "The Departed," are Michael Sheen for "The Queen," Ben Affleck for "Hollywoodland," Stanley Tucci for "Prada," Michael Caine for "Children Of Men," and Brad Pitt for "Babel."
BEST DIRECTOR - This could finally be the year Martin Scorsese wins, but Clint Eastwood could play the spoiler again. With the strong showing for "Babel," director Alejandro González Iñárritu could also be a surprise. Notable omissions include: Bill Condon for "DreamGirls," Pedro Almodovar for "Volver" and "Sunshine's" married directing team, Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Farir.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Peter Morton for "The Queen" would seem like a strong candidate, with Guillermo Arriaga for "Babel" and Iris Yamashita for "Iwo Jima" also in contention. The real dark horse may be Michael Arndt for "Sunshine."
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - William Monahan for "The Departed" represents the only nominee whose film is also up for best picture, but this is a category that in the past has held surprises. The biggest would be a win for "Borat," a movie that did not have a traditional script, but was improvised based on a comic persona. Omissions include "DreamGirls," "Thank You for Smoking" and "Volver."
BEST SONG - some will say having three films from "DreamGirls" means they will probably cancel each other out, but in fact the trend is that when a film has that much attention, at least one of its songs will be the winner.
BEST FOREIGN FILM - Mexican entry "Pan's Labyrinth" has gotten some of the best reviews of the year and could well take this category. Hindi-language movie "Water" could also be a contender. Omission surprisingly include "Volver," since Cruz took a top-tier nom, and New York critics fave "Army Of Shadows," a 1969 film about French resistance during World War II just released last year in the United States.

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